[spectre] 10 to 20 years left

[John Hopkins]

Hallo Heath --

> "When CO2 Levels Doubled 55 Million Years Ago, Earth May Have Warmed 9°F In 13
> Years"

I suggest a close reading of the original paper:

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/09/13/1309188110.full.pdf

which suggests that the cause of this rapid uptick is of extraplanetary origin 
(see **):

"Proposed mechanisms include the destabilization of the global methane reservoir 
by a thermal trigger (2, 4) or physical disturbance (5), production of 
thermogenic CH4 and CO2 during the emplacement of a large igneous province (6, 
7), wild fires burning peatlands (8), desiccation of a large epicontinental sea 
(9), decomposition of terrestrial permafrost (10), and **bolide impact**  (11, 12)."

and

"Given the rapidity of the onset, magnitude of the δ13C excursion, and that the 
observed calcite compensation depth shoaling in deep ocean requires ∼3,000 
GtC(3), two mechanisms meet these criteria: large igneous province-produced 
thermogenic methane and **cometary carbon**. The latter is consistent with the 
recent discovery of a substantial accumulation of nonbiogenic magnetic 
nanoparticles in the Marlboro clay, whose origin is **best ascribed to impact 
condensate**."

The time-scale for the particular uptick that they have well-researched is 
dramatic, but the source (and thus, mechanism and replication in our present 
situation) is entirely different. The journalistic conjectures drawn from this 
paper are just that, conjecture, and rather hyperbolic and simplistic at that...

Breathless (no pun intended!) climate change reporting like this does not really 
contribute to a rational discussion.

And his hyperdramatic "stages of collapse" is really over the top in terms of 
conjecture with no facts (in the style of Faux News!).

However, it is well-established principle in bio-systems that whatever the 
organism, when an energy source becomes available, that organism will simply 
consume the energy source until it is gone. There may be some minor (cyclic 
seasonal) storage mechanisms in place, but otherwise, *not eating* food that it 
in front of it is only an option when satiated. And when there is a glut, 
populations will rise until the glut is gone... It's all human hubris to expect 
that "our" bio-system response will be any different than the precursor 3 
billion years of organismic activity on the planet.

Some bio-system analysts ascribe 90% of the global human population to be a 
direct result of the easy availability of hydrocarbon of the last 150 years. 
That would be everyone around the [spectre] table -- we and all our 
career-oriented activities are the transitory and perhaps spurious results of 
that glut.

And, no, no matter what we do, the planet will not be uninhabitable, it will 
simply be passed over to another species ... at no great loss in the big picture.

jh

-- 
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Dr. John Hopkins, BSc, MFA, PhD
http://neoscenes.net/
http://tech-no-mad.net/blog/
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